Well, after two solid weeks of watching way too many movies, I am as prepared as I can be to make my not so bold predictions of whom I think will win the 2006 Academy Awards. After searching high and low all over Palau, I wasn't able to see two of the films nominated; one,
Junebug, had newcomer Amy Adams nominated for Best Supporting Actress, and the other,
The Squid and the Whale, is nominated for Best Original Screenplay. I broke down each category by who I think will win, who I think should win, and the dark horse nomination, who I just think should be mentioned.
Best PictureConsidering that this was financially a down year for movies, I was surprised to see that all of the films nominated for Best Picture could probably win in previous years. Each film had it's own particular charm, but one or two stood out above the rest.
Will win:
Brokeback Mountain. I don't think that anything could slow down the runaway media train known as
Brokeback Mountain. Everywhere I look on television now I see something on this movie that tackles the issues of homosexuality in America, specifically the idea of cowboys being gay. Each of the three major news channels that I get here, CNN, BBC, and Fox news have all done a "special" report on this movie. Granted, it was an excellent movie, with a fantastic cast, but I think the hype on this one might be a little bigger than the movie itself.
Should win:
Munich. Same issues as with
Brokeback, only the issues of the Middle East aren't as popular as the issues of homosexuality.
Munich is an original if not controversial idea regarding a subject that has been downplayed in the twenty-five years since it's occurrence. Steven Spielberg showed once again why he is one of the best directors in Hollywood today, even though he has been severely attacked by Israel for a historically inaccurate portrayal of the events surrounding the 1972 massacre of Jewish athletes.
Dark Horse:
Crash. This was my favorite movie that I saw this year. Thanks mostly to a superb cast,
Crash was the kind of movie that leaves you feeling emotionally drained when you walk out. Even though it seemed to me to be a little bit overdone, the themes attached to this movie resonate within all of our daily lives and deepest stereotypes.
Best ActorWill Win: Phillip Seymour Hoffman,
Capote. I have been a big fan of Hoffman in every P.T. Anderson movie that he has done, but outside of those three movies,
Boogie Nights, Magnolia, and Punch Drunk Love, I think that he is under-utilized as an actor and had yet to show his abilities. That was before
Capote, where he was masterful playing the "tiny terror", Truman Capote.
Should Win: Hoffman,
Capote.
Dark Horse: Heath Ledger,
Brokeback Mountain. Although not much of a dark horse, I think the Best Actor Academy Award is a two dog race. Ledger also put on what was probably a career saving performance as a gay cowboy in the 70's trying to raise a family and lead a normal life. Towards the end of the movie, his character becomes a tragic, tortured man who seems to have just given up on life in general.
Best ActressWill win: Reese Witherspoon,
Walk the Line. Great biopic about Johnny Cash's life, focusing on his relationship with June Carter, played brilliantly by Witherspoon. My only gripe with her receiving this award is that she just isn't the Best Actress this year.
Should Win: Felicity Huffman
, Transamerica. Any time a mildly attractive woman can gross me out by convincing me she is really a man, she deserves to win the Best Actress award. Huffman did such an amazing job at being a transexual, that I will forever have a hard time believing she is not a man, and this is the same woman who is considered one of the "Desperate Housewives".
Dark Horse: Keira Knightley
, Pride and Prejudice. Seriously......Great actress. The fact that I enjoyed a movie based on a Jane Austin book simply because of one woman's performance says everything. I say this will all seriousness, Knightley is not only an incredibly beautiful woman, but it turns out she's a pretty good actress too. Who would have thought?
Best Supporting ActorWill Win: Jake Gyllenhaal
, Brokeback Mountain. While he did do a good job, I just feel that he was overshadowed by Ledger, and that there are other actors nominated that, to me, gave a better performance.
Should Win: Paul Giamatti
, Cinderella Man. How this movie did so poorly I will never know. A moving and thrilling biopic (another one) about boxer Jim Braddock, went from pretty good to great due to Giamatti's performance as Braddock best friend and promoter Joe Gould. Plus, he got robbed last year.
Dark Horse: William Hurt
, A History of Violence. Hurt is only in the movie for about five minutes, and those are the best five minutes in the movie. Playing the sleazy crime boss brother of Viggo Mortensen, he makes the most of his time on the screen.
Best Supporting ActressWill Win: Michelle Williams
, Brokeback Mountain. Once again, I think that
Brokeback will claim this award strictly due to the hype. Williams is good as Ledger's wife who discovers his little secret, but she is not Oscar worthy. Unlike Hurt, she doesn't make that much of an impact with her screen time.
Should Win: Rachel Weisz
, The Constant Gardener. A star turning performance for Weisz. At the beginning of the film, you despise her character but by the end you are enthralled. Fantastic job.
Dark Horse: Frances McDormand
, North Country. I really don't have a dark horse in this category, but I'll give it to McDormand because of her admirable job in a decent movie about women in the 80's struggling against sexism in a predominately man's job.
Best DirectorWill win: Ang Lee
, Brokeback Mountain. Lee once again dazzles with the story that he tells and the epic scenery of Wyoming masterfully brought to the screen. Probably deserves this award, but......
Should win: Paul Haggis
, Crash. There were several scenes in the movie where your adrenaline is pumping and you're absolutely glued to the screen. While Matt Dillon's character is attempting to pull Thandie Newton out of a burning car and she realizes that he is the same man who molested her the night before, and Michael Pena's daughter running out to protect him from getting shot are two of the most exhilarating scenes which I have seen in quite some time.
Dark Horse: George Clooney
, Good Night and Good Luck. Clooney's stylish black and white film about Edward Murrow and his confrontation with Joseph McCarthy during the 50's when McCarthy was "hunting" communists is more than deserving for 5-6 awards. I believe Clooney deserves most of the credit for this one being that he wrote, directed, and co-stared.
Now, I don't have too much time to write, so I'll just give two more of my personal picks without giving favorites or dark horses.
Best Original ScreenplayMatch Point. I have already wrote my high opinion of this movie and the originality of the story as well as it's links to
Crime and Punishment.
Best Adapted ScreenplayThe Constant Gardener. underrated movie that will be overshadowed by
Brokeback Mountain which will most definitely take this award.
I wish that I could write about the rest of the categories and movies, but I think I've already done quite a bit, so maybe next year.